Climate News
CoCoRaHS Coming To Arizona - September 1st - Join Now!
[Read More]
Drying trend may signal drought not over
[Read More]
[Read More]
Drying trend may signal drought not over
[Read More]
Quick Links
Phoenix - Forecast Discussion
Click The Discussion Below That You Wish To View:
Flagstaff | Phoenix | Tucson
000 FXUS65 KPSR 221720 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 1020 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX... YUMA AND EL CENTRO. && .DISCUSSION... UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER LATE THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM FROM THE NORTH AND EAST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AND YUMA AREAS. FORECAST LOOKS AS IF IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...NO UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS. TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL. && .AVIATION... SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL... KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA. A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HAVE NO APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON SURFACE WINDS. THUS LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EVEN A BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MINOR AMOUNTS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET ASL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB AVIATION...ELLIS/AJ FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Additional Links:
Forecast Discussion – Flagstaff NWS OfficeForecast Discussion – Phoenix NWS Office
Forecast Discussion – Tucson NWS Office
*The information on this page is provided through links to other sources. Please give these sources credit for their work.